Guest Blog by Mxyl: Fact Checking the Future Part 2 - The Great Outdoors and Beyond!

Fig 1. Our priorities, apparently.

 It's been a bit, but we're heading on a field trip from the virtual home of 2020 to the book's other predictions, some specific to this year and some beyond! Without further ado, let's get to the elephant in the room:

Population: We're actually pretty much on track for the book's population numbers (hard to say as it doesn't give numbers for our specific year), although while different articles disagree on the topic, its overpopulation worries feel pretty dated. Many suspect that what's starting in Japan now is liable to happen in other areas (decreasing but eventually stabilizing), to say nothing of moon bases and whatever other projects lie in store.

Anyway, with that out of the way, it's time for the fun parts:

Space Hotels: "By the year 2020, there will be space hotels as well as space stations orbiting the Earth, 280 miles [up]... A special shuttle service will carry guests to and from Earth as well as on sightseeing tours to the Moon (p.23)... In the 21st century, there will be bases on the moon, probably with lunar hotels (p.56).

...Did Elon Musk just read the same book I did and get incredibly disappointed that we're not there yet? Because it feels like that's what he's going for. 

Miniaturization: The book shows off that computers have gotten small enough to fit into one's hand... like the Psion Series 3c, complete with its 1 megabyte of RAM. (For what it's worth, given another 20 years an iPhone 8's ~2,000 megabytes of RAM will probably sound just as laughable.) However, we're not here to measure the late '90s, just what it thinks the future will be! They propose an Internet-connected laptop successor, an "Office on the Arm" (a 1996 prototype shown at a wearable machines exhibition) that works as a phone, calculator and alarm clock, complete with a laptop-style touch pad! Again, though, this is one of those instances where the future's out-performed the past's predictions: we can do all that and more from an Apple Watch. Still, the concept of charging it via "a special vest worn by the user, which will convert body heat into energy" still isn't in mainstream use to my knowledge.

Virtual Reality Advancements: Granted, I referenced that this came true in the last post, and it isn't really outdoors-y, but I'll just say it's simulated outdoors. Anyway, the book also mentions "virtual sensory suits" that essentially mimic the feeling of, for instance, a ride or a sport. The Teslasuit does exactly this, bringing "full body haptic feedback" and climate control to the table, while also allowing the potential for motion capture and biometrics, making it a scientific and health tool as well as a media/gaming device. Can't find a price on it, but I'm getting the impression that developer kits are being sold for around $13,000. Well, at least it's nice to know the technology exists. It's worth noting that we're still fairly into the broad "21st century" listed in the book's description, so this could definitely become commonplace within the next eighty years. 

Nonetheless, it's interesting to note that Augmented Reality didn't seem to exist as a concept by this point. I suppose it makes sense--if one's working on technology to enter a virtual world, why would it occur to people to go for only part-virtual?

In-Car Navigation: According to the book, all-new cars will use CD-ROM maps and things called global positioning satellites to calculate the best route to take, complete with a digital voice. This is another one of the cases in which we've out-performed predictions, with zero need for CD-ROMs for maps, to say nothing of phone-based GPS systems. 

Automatic Cars and Highways: Honestly, this is probably one of the more exciting items in that we're right on the cusp on it. Automatic cars have been a thing for a while, but are only starting to enter the mainstream market--mostly in the limited form of cars that, say, guide parking work and keep drivers from drifting outside their lane (I once had the opportunity to travel in one). Whether highways will be electrified or magnetized to keep such cars in their lanes is another question; we seem to have moved past the need for that, relying more on AI recognition technology. 

Calendar of the Future: The book's listed a long-term calendar (up to 2035); there's way too much there to cover in total, but here are its predictions on 2020 (be warned, though--it places electronic shopping as becoming dominant quite accurately in 2014, but it puts the first human landing on Mars at the same year):

• 3D video conferencing: Well... does basically just enhanced VRChat for businesses count? If not, I don't think we're there yet, at least not on a widespread basis.
  
• Artificial lungs, kidneys, and brain cells: prototype artificial lungs have actually been made successfully in 2018; artificial kidneys haven't been made yet, although the University of California reports that The Kidney Project, a project dedicated to just this, was recently given a $1,000,000 grant to continue research on it. Artificial organic brain cells don't seem to be here yet either; the closest I could immediately find were machines that might reasonably fulfill a brain cell's functions.
• Cars that drive themselves on smart highways: (See above: Automatic Cars and Highways)
  
• Genetic links of all diseases identified: Uuh... heh... wouldn't that have been nice.

Interestingly, in their Could Happen at Any Time segment, they list "worldwide epidemic" right between "human mutation" and "time travel invented." Huh.

Last but not least: some relevant factoids from the book's Fascinating Facts page! 

• Scientists aim for plastic made from plants: Plant-based plastic has actually come true!
• The James Webb Space Telescope will turn its eye to galaxies' birth, launching 2011: Well... they were actually off by a bit. Like, ten years. The plan's still around, but according to the Space Telescope's Official NASA Website, the latest delay, due to a guessable health concern, has pushed the launch back to Halloween of 2021. 
• By 2020, four out of ten people could be working from home: Huh. I guess we've noticed a good chunk of that. What is it with the weirdly relevant stuff?
  
• The first manned Mars mission will be in 2019: Missed by a mile... which, since Mars is so far away, actually adds up to a whole lot. (And yes, it did mention it'd be 2014 elsewhere; maybe an update went uncaught in the revision?) On the other hand, Elon Musk (who I'm now all but convinced has read the same book I have) is aiming for the book to only be off by a mere four years. 

Overall, it's pretty easy to laugh at what they've gotten wrong, but some of its predictions are stunningly accurate. I suppose it shows the difference between an educated guess and a wild, out-in-the-dark one--you can still be wrong with either one, but knowing the data from the past and present allows one to extrapolating something far closer to the truth than going from nothing.

Guest Blog by Mxyl: Fact Checking the Future Part 1 - The Home of 2020!

Hello, everyone! One of my favorite childhood educational books was DK Publishing's "Future", a 2004 book (revised from a 1998 first printing) about predictions of the future, the past's thoughts on what it could be like, and present innovations on how to get there. However, many of its predictions focus on a specific year: 2020. I remember being amazed as a kid that, while it'd be quite a long wait, I'd eventually see the science fiction-esque world of The Future. 

Well, it was quite a long wait, but we're here! Now that we're in the future, it's time to see what the writers got right and what they didn't! (All the below images are used solely for educational purposes; I highly recommend getting a copy if possible to see it for yourself!)

First up is a massive segment on the virtual home of 2020! In 2020, it states, a "global communications network" will enable one to do nearly anything from home--which is quite true now, although I'm not sure why they didn't just say "Internet" to describe it. A bit of side content notes that automated homes in 2020 will be able to adjust temperature controls for year-long comfort, which is almost chillingly accurate with the advent of Google's Nest thermostats. However, the book also gives predictions of interactive, changing walls and holographic projectors, well... while the technology for holograph-like screens and adaptive screen-walls exist, the concept that they'd be affordable for general upper-class homes didn't age so well. With that said and done, let's jump into its details! 

• Health-Monitoring Shower: Uh... that would get so many lawsuits. Something that scans someone in mid-shower and sends it to a database? I'm not sure if this exists or not, but I hope it doesn't.  Nonetheless, it is worth noting that more recent Apple Watches can be used for similar health services, even measuring the oxygen in one's blood.
  
• A Dining Table with News & Communication-Based Screens: ...Huh? I mean, score one for Internet of Things predictions (I don't think the term existed then), but while we could make this, I think we've mostly chosen not to. (Klenda notes that smart fridges do exist, though.)
  
• "By the year 2020, [cell phones] will all be videophones": Wooow. They're pretty spot-on here, although this is one of the few instances in which 2020 has actually out-performed predictions. Looking back at SF and other items, it really is stunning that just about no one saw casual touchscreens coming. 
• Holographic Homework Helpers: To be honest, we're closer than I'd thought we were (slim-panel holographic technology is a pretty impressive step in the direction of Star Wars), but nope. We don't have mini-holograms in all our houses.
• Robot Servants: Prediction on robot vacuum cleaners? Definitely called it. Prediction on robot dishwasher loaders? Well... that's a bit more complicated. Boston Dynamics made a "SpotMini" in 2016 that has the capability to do so, but only one quick test was shown and it doesn't seem specialized for it. More specialized dishwasher robot technology was revealed from the Toyota Research Institute in 2019, but TRI's Robotics Research VP Russ Tedrake felt it still needed improvement before making it to practical home use, calling it "one of the most advanced manipulation systems in the world. But it's still not good enough [for commercial use]." They're also focusing more on software than hardware for now, so we may have to wait a bit longer for a commercially viable one.
  
• Smart Watch: Apple is known for doing two things: forging a path to the future and dragging everyone else kicking and screaming with it. (No standard USB ports on Macbooks? Really, Apple...?) Seriously, though, smartwatches have been around in some form or another since before the book was published, but getting sports and traffic information from a watch is pretty easy with a Siri-equipped Apple Watch or an equivalent service/device. 
• VR Headset: Have to hand it to them, they nailed it on this one. (Although one brief side note refers to headsets having "thought recognition sensors." Huh?)
• VR Trainer/Simulation Machine: I guess this one's closer to the dishwasher-loading robot one: we're getting there, but we're not there yet. Destin of Smarter Every Day (one channel we at Zoom Times particularly like) has done the bulk of this work in 2018, noting a VR glove (Part 1 | Part 2) and, most relevantly, an infinite movement treadmill system. Still, though, that's nowhere near the level of immersion the prediction was looking at, to say nothing of the noise level. (It's possible I'm missing something with this one, though.)
• Relaxation Service/Massage-Giving Couch: Another point for predicting smart devices, but I haven't seen this in widespread use. There are sorta-massaging sofas and somewhat "smart", TV-integrated ones, but no roboticized sofa so far.
  
• Working from Home: "Working from home is already a popular alternative for many people... [In 2020], small work stations will provide full access to everything needed... from e-mail to video conferencing." ...Maybe a little too close to home.

Lightning round for the shorter notes: self-cleaning furniture material does exist as of 2012 via titanium dioxide within plastic, and hydrophobic materials are being tried out; flexible-screen devices do exist but aren't commonplace; taking classes virtually is a thing (if not hologram-based); and nanobot-scale cleaning, while far from the Home of 2020's prediction, are being worked on as described in a journal released just this year!

Wordless Wednesday: Early Autumn Hike

 

Happy Birthday, Mxyl!

 

 

Yes, it's another pandemic birthday:  Mxyl is 23! 

 

Another smaller than usual gathering, but still a lot of fun and a lot of love for our first born!

23 Great Things About Mxyl

1. He's a college graduate!

2. His second movie, Abydos: Incursion is almost ready to come out! 
2. He's a professional web designer.
3. He's a great older brother who has a lot of fun with his younger siblings.
4.  According to those siblings, "He's amazing!"
4. He graduated Summa cum Laude.
5. He knows an astonishing amount about tokusatsu.  
6. He loves the sacraments.  
7. He's got a great sense of humor!  
7. He's a deadly punster. 
8. He looks cool in sunglasses.  
9. He never gives spoilers.  
10. He's passionate about his projects.  
10. He has an amazing ability to learn complex things.
11. He always tries to make things better.
12. He's great with little kids.  

12. He makes beautiful intuitive websites.
13. He always sees things through.  
14. He fan subs Japanese movies.  
14. He loves to help people. 
15. He does a posh British accent.  
16. He's my in house computer support guy.  
17. He's my out of the house errand guy.
17. He's a big supporter of all his siblings crazy schemes.  
18 He has an eye for creating beautiful photographs.  
18.He enjoys really good artistic movies.
19. He enjoys really bad (artistically speaking) movies.  
20. He's teaching himself Python.

20. He watches out for others.

21.  He's helps without being asked.

22. He's good  at the whole adulting thing.
22. He's still supporting the scouts, especially his siblings.  
23. He's a very loving son and grandson!

Congratulations, Mxyl!

On Saturday, Mxyl graduated with his Bachelor's degree!

Wahoo!  That was a LOT of work, but he graduated Summa cum Laude.  Way to go Mxyl!

What with the pandemic and all, they had to cancel in the in person graduation, of course, but the online version has to be the best graduation I've ever attended. 

I don't know if it was because it was online, but all the speeches were very to the point, with really good advice and encouragement.



They had Mxyl send in a picture in advance, and they did the actual graduations as a slideshow with the names announced.

Very nice!

It's kind of a weird time to graduate, of course, but Mxyl has been busy doing freelance work designing websites and finishing up the post production on his second movie, Abydos 2.  Abydos (the first one) can be found here.

Off to North Dakota

Mxyl, Klenda, and Zorg are off in North Dakota with my sister, helping out with a summer camp.



Off they went, flying on their own like adults...

Which they are!!

And hopefully having a great time!

Meanwhile, back home with only 3 kids, we are missing them and figuring out how to do things with only five people.

It's tough, but we're managing...

Guest Blog by Mxyl: Favorites from Crimora (Accompanied by a philosophical rant about photography)

By "favorites" I mean the Prime Minister and I rounded the 153 photos I took during the trip into these 12. 

To the pessimistic eye, photographing nature may seem like little more than creating a pale reflection of a former reality.  For my eye, however, is serves a different purpose. 

When I look to document many subjects, the concepts of Plato come to mind, describing how art is a step downward from actual nature, as it merely imitates, rather than reproduces, reality.  I would agree with his statement of art as imitation; however, I feel a part of the beauty of this imitation is how it can grow our appreciation for the real thing.

Video game technology has made massive advances since its beginning in 1969, having leapt from bitmap graphics to polygons and image maps.  Yet in the end, even the most advanced of games are still just made of these; upon looking closer, any model will still become blocky and its textures blurred, even if it takes a closer look than it used to to see the difference.  However, reality has no such limits; a closer look at nature only yields more detail and intricacy.  To me, this points to video games not as poor imitation but as highlighting the detail and beauty of the reality it imitates.

Photography, to me, brings with it much of the same thing: it gives attention to that which is already real, especially things we normally wouldn't stop to pay attention to.  The point in documenting isn't creating something less, but drawing attention to something more, letting others see beauty in things they hadn't seen in that way.





I feel part of photography comes down not only to philosophy but even to the Divine.  The Earth, despite the political turmoil we largely remember it for, is ultimately God's gift to us; every scene of beauty is something He made for us to wonder at (or sometimes just laugh about), even though we rarely recognize such a gift.

I feel this is where photography steps in: we can't hope to perfectly replicate such an immense world, but we can capture and imitate little bits of it, not creating so much as displaying the beauty of something we typically take for granted.  God gave us this world, so I view our attempts to showcase its beauty as a way to say "thank you" in our own way, expressing our gratitude for those experiences. 

In fact, "experiences" can apply not only to nature but also to our everyday lives.  I spoke in my previous guest blog about how art can allow one to share his or her view with others and to widen his or her own.

While this is true, I also feel photography can highlight smaller moments much like how they highlight nature, making them stand out in a Kant-like faculty of resistance that adds a theological justification for the moment's existence (okay too much) by revealing the beauty in our lives.

Especially in times of international turmoil and hardships suffered by all too many lives, we all need a reminder that life is inherently good, and our imitations of such moments highlights this point, just as it does the beauty of our surroundings.  

Happy Birthday, Mxyl!

Mxyl turned 21 when we were off vacationing in Virginia!

We had an ice cream cake for his birthday, and a bottle of muscato with his steak dinner (21 is the legal drinking age in the US).

Later, back in Maryland, we had a second birthday party with Pop and Mxyl got his biggest birthday present: tickets to try indoor skydiving with Klenda, Zorg, and Leena!




21 Great Things About Mxyl
1. He's working on  his second movie, Abydos: Incursion.  
2. He's really good at web design.
3. He's a great older brother who doesn't mind taking his little brothers biking!
4.  According to those little brothers, "He's amazing!"
4. He's an honor student in all his college classes.
5. He knows an astonishing amount about tokusatsu.  
6. He loves the sacraments.  
7. He's got a great sense of humor!  
7. He's a deadly punster. 
  8. He looks cool in sunglasses.  
9. He never gives spoilers.  
10. He's passionate about his projects.  
10. He has an amazing ability to learn complex things,  whether it's calculus or Japanese, or a computer language.  
11. He always tries to make things better.
12. He's great with little kids.  
13. He always sees things through.  
14. He fan subs Japanese movies.  
14. He loves to help people. 
 15. He does a posh British accent.  
16. He's my in house computer support guy.  
17. He's my out of the house errand guy.
17. He's a big supporter of all his siblings crazy schemes.  
18 He has an eye for creating beautiful photographs.  
18.He enjoys really good artistic movies.
19. He enjoys really bad (artistically speaking) movies.  
20. He's helps without being asked. 
20. He's still supporting the scouts, especially his siblings.  
21. He's a very loving son and grandson!

Vacation Round 3: Bubbles and Birthdays

 We played around quite a bit with a giant bubble wand.

And we took a dip in the hot tub on a rainy day.

And we celebrated Mxyl's 21st birthday!

North Dakota Summer Camp

For most of June, Mxyl and Klenda were in North Dakota to help out as counselors at a summer camp.  This is near Turtle Mountain, so the nearest town has a giant turtle statue made from welded car wheels.

It's also near the beautiful US-Canadian Peace Gardens.


And, of course, it's where my youngest sister serves as a SOLT sister!

They all had a great time, and my kids enjoyed being counselors.

They loved making friends with the other counselors (who were also from many different states). 

They loved working with the kids!



Mxyl did canoeing and archery with the kids, and Klenda did art projects.

And they got to spend some time hanging out with their aunt (who is also Mxyl's godmother).

Amazingly, one of the counselors was from Texas, but his family took a vacation in August to Washington DC, so we all got to meet him (and give him Old Bay)!